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Paradise Valley Study Area in 1991 (actual)

Paradise Valley Study Area in 2039 (projection)

1) Chico Hot Springs
2) Mill Creek
3) Emigrant
4) Yankee Jim Canyon
5) Emigrant Peak

Paradise Valley Study Area in 2039 (projection)

  The potential future is modeled above - utilizing the Land Use Prediction System. The Study Area is depicted as it may appear in the year 2039 if current trends continue. As before, residential development is indicated in red. The prediction is conservative, based on a relatively slow growth period from 1979 to 1991 (see septic permits graph). Based on this model, the rural character of Paradise Valley would likely disappear and be replaced by a low-density suburban sprawl.

Paradise Valley Study Area in 1991 (actual)

  The above color-coded computer model depicts an aerial view of the study area looking south from Mill Creek to Yankee Jim Canyon. The computer model depicts the area as it existed ten years ago in 1991. Red is used to denote areas which had residential development, while the remaining colors indicate varying types of open space (see color key below). The color coding is based on analysis of aerial photographs taken of the area in 1991. As this image demonstrates, the study area was relatively undeveloped at that time.

Aerial Photo Interpretation

  The predictions utilized in this study are based on a Land Use Change Model developed at the MSU Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science. This system predicts potential future land use based on patterns of land use changes in the past. For this study, graduate students from the MSU School of Architecture were trained to analyze aerial photographs and to categorize these photographs into a wide variety of distinct land uses, ranging from irrigated hay to bottomland pasture. The students overlaid aerial photographs of the Study Area with a grid, dividing the area into ten acre “cells.” Each cell was analyzed to determine its use or land cover in the years 1979 and 1991. This information was fed into the Land Use Change Model computer program. The program is a probability-based, multi-dimensional transition matrix model.

Step 1) overlay grid of appropriate cell size: 10 acres.

Step 2) Classify each cell based on land cover or land use.

  Each ten acre cell that changed use or did not change use over the twelve year period provides information about the potential for land use change over subsequent decades. The probability of change is determined by a number of factors, such as the distance to roads or the distance to public land. These factors are entered into the program to provide a predictor for other cells in the future. The predictions below indicate the likely outcome of current trends in the valley.

credits for Paving over Paradise