If current trends continue,Paradise Valley, the original gateway to Yellowstone National Park,will one day be a nearly continuous residential subdivision,all the way from Livingston to Gardiner.This study projects forty years into the future with virtual snapshots of the valley in each of the next four decades.The study also provides an alternative vision of what the future could be if steps are taken today to preserve the rural character.
The above image of the center-pivot sprinkler pattern is used in this document to gauge the scale of the land depicted in pictures and graphics.The image is also used as north arrow to indicate geographic direction. Typically, these circles are 1/2 mile in diameter and define an area of 137 acres.
  The work contained in this document is the result of the combined efforts of the MSU School of Architecture, the Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science, the Department of Political Science, and the Park County Environmental Council.

   The principle objective of the study was to create visually compelling images of the potential future of Paradise Valley to allow residents to "see" the cumulative impact of current actions over time. The study also suggests an alternative future that may be more fitting to the stated goals of the current Park County Comprehensive Plan. Throughout that Plan, six identified districts state as their goal that residents wish to "maintain the rural character…, promote open space and agricultural characteristics…, maintain the mix of small town and rural characteristics of the area…, and preserve the rural character of the area…." However, the Plan includes no substantive actions that might enable residents to achieve these goals. Perhaps, with a clearer picture of the likely future of the valley, residents will take corrective action towards furthering their stated goals, before it is too late.

   The study utilizes multiple data sources to make its projections, including analysis of recent land subdivision, septic tank permit data over the past thirty years, and past and present aerial photographs. Growth predictions were made utilizing a computerized process developed by MSU's Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science. The process, entitled the Land Use/Land Cover Prediction System, utilizes past changes in land use to predict the potential for change in the future.

   This study examines growth in the Paradise Valley of Park County, Montana, with a selected portion of the valley chosen to study in greater depth. The selected area is a 122-square-mile area that lies midway between the towns of Livingston and Gardiner encompassing Mill Creek to the north and Point of Rocks to the south. The area, as is typical of the valley, includes a corridor of privately-held land along the Yellowstone River bounded to the east and the west by National Forest land. Highway 89 is the primary access through the valley and is a major travel way for visitors heading into Yellowstone Park. Today, the area is primarily rural farmland and forestland with the small communities of Emigrant, Pray and Chicory, farm houses, and increasingly, large lot subdivisions.

Paradise Valley / Gallatin Gateway
Comparison
The impact of growth is illustrated in three ways in this site:

Aerial photographs of the river corridor with a subdivision overlay.

3-dimensional computerized map of the total study area.

Artist's rendering of the Mill Creek area, today, tomorrow and an alternative vision of tomorrow
The Yellowstone River corridor of Paradise Valley is compared here to Gallatin County's Gallatin River corridor leading to West Yellowstone, the west entrance to Yellowstone National Park. Just a decade ago, this view of Gallatin Gateway on the right - taken in 2000 - would have appeared nearly as pristine as the current view of Paradise Valley, shown on the left.
  Park County is a largely rural county in southcentral Montana. The lower 48 states' longest free flowing river, the Yellowstone, flows north through nearly the entire length of the county. Montana's highest mountain, Granite Peak, reaches to nearly 13,000 feet in the southern end of the county. The Absaroka/Beartooth Wilderness occupies the eastern portion of the county and the Gallatin Range the west. The Crazy Mountains rise out of a sea of prairie to the north. Settled in the latter half of the 19th century by miners, loggers and cattle producers, Park County has sustained these practices to a greater or lesser degree to this day. In the past 30 years a shift has occurred away from these traditional land uses, and recreational pursuits play an increasingly prominent role in the local economy. Agriculture, however, seems to be holding its own and, in much of the county, large ranches and farms have been able to maintain their operations. However, this is becoming more and more difficult as the national farm economy exerts market influences beyond the control of local producers.

  Farm and ranch families are facing difficulties that force them to make tough decisions regarding the future of their property. Add to this the burgeoning land values brought on by the recreational property boom, and the decision to hold out against all odds becomes increasingly more difficult. Faced with an option previously unavailable: that of selling agricultural lands at "resort" prices, many farmers and ranchers make the decision to sell. The decision is driven by family needs, generational shifts, "rational" analysis of land value (and cost of replacement elsewhere), and increasing difficulties in operations as farms become surrounded by suburbia. This scenario has set the stage for a shift in land use away from open farm and ranch lands to scattered development of home sites, increased roads, and added infrastructure costs.
Park County Environmental Council
P.O. Box 164
Livingston, MT 59047
406-222-0723
866-829-2059 (toll free)

©2001 Park County Environmental Council

PCEC is a tax-exempt 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Your contribution is tax deductible to the extent allowed by law.